28 June 2016

EU breakup predicted to follow Brexit

The Blog


With the shocking, rebellious decision of the British people to leave the European Union in a recent referendum, analyses predicting the European Union's breakup should be revisited.


Describing the potential "leave" vote as a big loss for Britain's financial elite, on May 15 2015, historical expert and sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein had stated (as reported at this blog), "public opinion in more countries than Great Britain has become less and less enthusiastic about the EU and parties calling for a withdrawal are gaining strength."

Wallerstein wrote, also, "the EU is divided about how to respond to Russia’s reaffirmation of its political role in Europe, especially in relation to Ukraine. Adding a Brexit to this mix of difficulties might be just too much for the EU. The EU and the eurozone are a house of cards, which might simply collapse".

The EU is now in an economic and political war on two fronts, much as Hitler and Napoleon faced. With the loss of Britain, further political pressure on the EU over the Ukrainian crisis would be extremely demoralizing for remaining EU countries like Germany and France, who remember bitter historic defeats at British and Russian hands. It could be too much, with the EU overwhelmed by the economic and political consequences.

Such an analysis, however, was prior to the "Grexit" vote on Greek withdrawal, which had resulted in Greeks voting to remain in the European Union. The financial effects of a UK withdrawal, meanwhile, are potentially more extreme than Grexit due to Britain's eminent position in the EU and the world economy at large.

Also successfully predicted by Wallerstein was that Cameron would regret his electoral successes, which would ultimately strand him in failures and defeats even despite Scots voting to preserve the Union. With Cameron's resignation now certain, Wallerstein's brutal assessment of 2015-2016 political turbulence has proven true, just as his prediction of growing antistatism and regime collapse in the United States will come true.

Analysis by a different author at the US-based Stratfor intelligence firm just two days before the June 2016 referendum predicted:
If Britain leaves the European Union, it would throw the Continent into yet another political and economic crisis, giving Euroskeptic forces greater ammunition against the bloc and voters fewer reasons to defend it... regardless of what happens June 23, Britain has set a precedent that Brussels cannot stop other EU members from following.
While the French President, for example, has already rejected a request to hold a "Frexit" referendum, it seems abundantly likely that demoralized French and German officials will eventually have to agree to similar votes. With the loss of the second biggest economy in the EU already decided, any departure of its remaining big economies will simply caused the bloc to collapse.

The EU's failures to arrive at any common ground to save relations with Britain could signal greater problems in western supranational organizations and lead to the eventual dissolution of NATO.


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